08/06/2022, 15:00 — 16:00 — Room P4.35, Mathematics Building
Thi Minh Thao Le, University of Tours, France
Multiple Timescales in Microbial Interactions
The purpose of this work is the theoretical and numerical study of an epidemiological model of multi-strain co-infection. Depending on the situation, the model is written as ordinary differential equations or reaction-advection-diffusion equations. In all cases, the model is written at the host population level on the basis of a classical susceptible-infected-susceptible system (SIS).
The infecting agent is structured into N strains, which differ according to 5 traits: transmissibility, clearance rate of single infections, clearance rate of double infections, probability of transmission of strains, and co-infection rates. The resulting system is a large system ($N^2 + N + 1$ equations) whose complete theoretical study is generally inaccessible. This work is therefore based on a simplifying assumption of trait similarity - the so-called quasi-neutrality assumption. In this framework, it is then possible to implement Tikhonov-type time scale separation methods. The system is thus decomposed into two simpler subsystems. The first one is a so-called neutral system - i.e., the value of the traits of all the strains are equal - which supports a detailed mathematical analysis and whose dynamics turn out to be quite simple. The second one is a ”replication equation” type system that describes the frequency dynamics of the strains and contains all the complexity of the interactions between strains induced by the small variations in the trait values.
The first part explicitly determines the slow system in an a spatial framework for N strains using a system of ordinary differential equations and justifies that this system describes the complete system well. This system is a replication system that can be described using the $N(N −1)$ fitnesses of interaction between the pairs of strains. It is shown that these fitnesses are a weighted average of the perturbations of each trait.
The second part consists in using explicit expressions of these fitnesses to describe the dynamics of the pairs (i.e. the case $N = 2$) exhaustively. This part is illustrated with many simulations, and applications on vaccination are discussed.
The last part consists in using this approach in a spatialized framework. The SIS model is then a reaction-diffusion system in which the coefficients are spatially heterogeneous. Two limiting cases are considered: the case of an asymptotically small diffusion coefficient and the case of an asymptotically large diffusion coefficient. In the case of slow diffusion, we show that the slow system is a system of type ”replication equations”, describing again the temporal but also spatial evolution of the frequencies of the strains. This system is of the reaction-advection-diffusion type, the additional advection term explicitly involving the heterogeneity of the associated neutral system. In the case of fast diffusion, classical methods of aggregation of variables are used to reduce the spatialized SIS problem to a homogenized SIS system on which we can directly apply the previous results.
