Probability and Statistics Seminar   RSS

18/05/2022, 14:30 — 15:30 — Online
, School of Mathematics of the University of Edinburgh

The covariate-adjusted ROC curve: the concept and its importance and a new Bayesian estimator

Accurate diagnosis of disease is of fundamental importance in clinical practice and medical research. Before a medical diagnostic test is routinely used in practice, its ability to distinguish between diseased and nondiseased states must be rigorously assessed. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is the most popular used tool for evaluating the diagnostic accuracy of continuous-outcome tests. It has been acknowledged that several factors (e.g., subject-specific characteristics such as age and/or gender) can affect the test outcomes and accuracy beyond disease status. Recently, the covariate-adjusted ROC curve has been proposed and successfully applied as a global summary measure of diagnostic accuracy that takes covariate information into account. In this talk I will motivate the importance of including covariate-information, whenever available, in ROC analysis and, in particular, how the covariate-adjusted ROC curve is an important tool in this context. I will also detail the development of a highly flexible Bayesian method, based on the combination of a Dirichlet process mixture of additive normal models and the Bayesian bootstrap, for conducting inference about the covariate-adjusted ROC curve. Illustrations with simulated and real data will be provided.

Joint seminar CEMAT and CEAUL