16/05/2017, 11:00 — 12:00 — Room P3.10, Mathematics Building
Aurelio Tobias, Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research and CSIC, Barcelona
Statistical models for the relationship between daily temperature and mortality
The association between daily ambient temperature and health outcomes has been frequently investigated based on a time series design. The temperature–mortality relationship is often found to be substantially nonlinear and to persist, but change shape, with increasing lag. Thus, the statistical framework has gained a substantial development during last years. In this talk I describe the general features of time series regression, outlining the analysis process to model short-term fluctuations in the presence of seasonal and long-term pattern. I also offer an overview of the recent extend family of distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM), a modelling framework that can simultaneously represent non-linear exposure–response dependencies and delayed effects. To illustrate the methodology, I use an example to represent the relationship between temperature and mortality, using data from the MCC Collaborative Research Network, an international research program on the association between weather and health.