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11/12/2009, 16:00 — 17:00 — Room P12, Mathematics Building

Maria da Graça Magalhães, Edviges Coelho, *Instituto Nacional de Estatística*

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Methods and techniques to construct projections of resident population: Portugal, 2008-2060

The purpose of this communication is to present the methodology adopted in the last exercise of resident population projections in Portugal, carried out by the Statistics Portugal.

These population projections are based on the concept of resident population and adopt the cohort-component method, where the initial population is grouped into cohorts defined by age and sex, and continuously updated, according to the assumptions of future development set for each of the components of population change - fertility, mortality and migration - that is, by adding the natural balance and net migration, in addition to the natural aging process. This method, widely used in the elaboration of population projections at national level, allows the development of different scenarios of demographic evolution based on different combinations of likely developments of the components.

The results are conditioned, on the one hand by the structure and composition of the initial population, and on the other, by the different behaviour patterns of fertility, mortality and migration in each set of assumptions about the evolution over the projection period, so it should be emphasize the conditional nature of the results, since it is a method of scenarios of "if ... then ..." in that each combines differently the assumptions outlined for the components.

Given the importance of the projections of individual components to the outcome of the exercise, we proceed to the presentation of the methodologies used in the projection of each of these. The projection of components is carried out using a set of statistical methods, adequate to the background information and the proposed target. Thus in the case of fertility we have modelled the fertility rates using the method proposed by Schmertmann (2003), for mortality we have used the Poisson-Lee-Carter with limit life table proposed by Bravo (2007) and for migration, given the increased fragility of the data and consequently the difficulties regarding the practical application of methods for statistical modelling, was adopted as a initial reference the average of the estimated flows in the last 15 years. Finally, we will present the main results of this exercise, both in regard to components and to the future population.